Macro Sentiment Outweighs Fundamental Weakness, Iron Ore Prices Continue to Rise [SMM Brief Comment]

Dalian iron ore futures rose today, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 792.5 yuan, up 1.93% from the previous working day. Main port spot cargo prices increased by 5-15 yuan/mt compared to the previous working day. In Shandong, transaction prices for PB fines were 795-805 yuan, up 10-15 yuan/mt; in Hebei, transaction prices for PB fines were 805-810 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from the previous working day. Market transactions were moderate today, with steel mills purchasing as needed and making cautious inquiries, while most traders followed market trends and offered fewer quotes.

This week, hot metal output affected by blast furnace maintenance increased significantly, and steel mill profits remained low, leading to weakened iron ore demand in the short term. Meanwhile, port inventory stayed high, putting the fundamentals of iron ore under pressure. However, with frequent positive news such as the easing of China-US trade tensions and the signing of the ASEAN-China free trade agreement, market sentiment improved, driving futures prices higher. The market generally held an optimistic attitude toward the upcoming China-US meeting. Influenced by news, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.